SM
SAM'SMODELS

Week 5 Projections.

A projected score for every game on the board — built from play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponent, beside the first line the model saw for that game. Open any game for the full breakdown.

UPDATED TUESDAY 8:47 AM ET
NFL ATS RECORD
25-6-1
80.6% · 10-1 on 3+ edges
GAMES
15
this week
MODEL DISAGREES 3+
6
points off the market
BIGGEST GAP
5.6
Tampa Bay Buc. at Dallas Cowboys

Thursday, October 8

1 game
8:15 PM ET·AT&T Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0-4
23.9
Dallas Cowboys2-2
27.8
Vegas lineDallas Cowboys -9.5
Model lineDallas Cowboys -3.9
Model pickTampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 (5.6)
GAME BREAKDOWN →

Sunday, October 11

13 games
9:30 AM ET·Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Philadelphia Eagles2-2
19.1
Jacksonville Jaguars3-1
27.3
Vegas lineJacksonville Jaguars -5.5
Model lineJacksonville Jaguars -8.3
Model pickJacksonville Jaguars -5.5 (2.8)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
1:00 PM ET·Hard Rock Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals2-2
24.9
Miami Dolphins0-4
22.9
Vegas lineCincinnati Bengals -7
Model lineCincinnati Bengals -2.1
Model pickMiami Dolphins +7 (4.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
1:00 PM ET·Gillette Stadium
Las Vegas Raiders3-1
18.4
New England Patriots2-2
23.9
Vegas lineNew England Patriots -3.5
Model lineNew England Patriots -5.5
Model pickNew England Patriots -3.5 (2.0)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
1:00 PM ET·Caesars Superdome
Minnesota Vikings4-0
17.9
New Orleans Saints1-3
20.0
Vegas lineMinnesota Vikings -1.5
Model lineNew Orleans Saints -2.1
Model pickNew Orleans Saints +1.5 (3.6)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
1:00 PM ET·MetLife Stadium
Cleveland Browns3-1
20.5
New York Jets1-3
19.3
Vegas lineNew York Jets -2
Model lineCleveland Browns -1.3
Model pickCleveland Browns +2 (3.3)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
1:00 PM ET·Acrisure Stadium
Indianapolis Colts2-2
23.2
Pittsburgh Steelers2-2
24.8
Vegas linePittsburgh Steelers -2.5
Model linePittsburgh Steelers -1.5
Model pickIndianapolis Colts +2.5 (1.0)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
1:00 PM ET·Nissan Stadium
Houston Texans0-4
20.6
Tennessee Titans0-4
18.6
Vegas lineHouston Texans -7
Model lineHouston Texans -2.1
Model pickTennessee Titans +7 (4.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
1:00 PM ET·Northwest Stadium
New York Giants3-1
20.6
Washington Commanders1-3
23.3
Vegas lineWashington Commanders -3.5
Model lineWashington Commanders -2.7
Model pickNew York Giants +3.5 (0.8)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
1:00 PM ET·Lambeau Field
Chicago Bears3-1
26.4
Green Bay Packers2-2
26.2
Vegas lineChicago Bears -2.5
Model lineChicago Bears -0.2
Model pickGreen Bay Packers +2.5 (2.3)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
4:05 PM ET·SoFi Stadium
Denver Broncos2-2
21.5
Los Angeles Chargers0-4
18.9
Vegas lineDenver Broncos -3.5
Model lineDenver Broncos -2.6
Model pickLos Angeles Chargers +3.5 (0.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
4:25 PM ET·State Farm Stadium
Detroit Lions2-2
25.4
Arizona Cardinals1-3
24.0
Vegas lineDetroit Lions -4
Model lineDetroit Lions -1.4
Model pickArizona Cardinals +4 (2.6)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
4:25 PM ET·Lumen Field
San Francisco 49ers4-0
26.8
Seattle Seahawks3-1
27.0
Vegas lineSeattle Seahawks -3
Model lineSeattle Seahawks -0.2
Model pickSan Francisco 49ers +3 (2.8)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
8:20 PM ET·Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Baltimore Ravens3-1
23.0
Atlanta Falcons2-2
23.1
Vegas lineBaltimore Ravens -3.5
Model lineAtlanta Falcons -0.1
Model pickAtlanta Falcons +3.5 (3.6)
GAME BREAKDOWN →

Monday, October 12

1 game
8:15 PM ET·SoFi Stadium
Buffalo Bills3-1
26.1
Los Angeles Rams2-2
29.0
Vegas lineLos Angeles Rams -3
Model lineLos Angeles Rams -2.9
Model pickBuffalo Bills +3 (0.1)
GAME BREAKDOWN →