San Francisco 49ers 4-0
26.8
Seattle Seahawks 3-1
27.001 / THE NUMBER
The model makes this Seattle Seahawks -0.2. The market has it Seattle Seahawks -3, a gap of 2.8 points toward San Francisco 49ers.
Tested against closing lines on 1,171 games since 2022, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.
02 / PROJECTED SCORE
03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM
Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 0.2 toward Seattle Seahawks.
04 / QUARTERBACK
| Starter | Team | Adjustment, EPA / dropback |
|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | +0.000 |
| Drew Lock | Seattle Seahawks | -0.008 |
Each listed starter measured against whoever actually played in the games these ratings were built from. Zero means the starter is the same quarterback already in the numbers.
05 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs the league
| Percentile, 0–100 | San Francisco. off | Seattle Seaha. off | San Francisco. def | Seattle Seaha. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 100 | 74 | 26 | 77 |
| Rushing | 74 | 45 | 32 | 97 |
| Pass cons. | 100 | 97 | 45 | 87 |
| Rush cons. | 77 | 42 | 0 | 100 |
| Pass rate | 23 | 3 | 61 | 16 |
| Pace | 16 | 35 | 29 | 48 |
06 / TEAM RATINGS
| Per play, vs average | San Francisco. off | Seattle Seaha. off | San Francisco. def | Seattle Seaha. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA / dropback | +0.194 | +0.074 | +0.024 | -0.033 |
| Rush EPA / carry | +0.020 | -0.012 | +0.002 | -0.018 |
| Pass success rate | +0.076 | +0.040 | +0.004 | -0.015 |
| Rush success rate | +0.027 | -0.009 | +0.037 | -0.034 |
| Pass rate | -0.015 | -0.046 | -0.009 | +0.014 |
| Plays per game | -1.1 | -0.7 | +0.4 | -0.1 |
Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season. On defence, negative is good. Rest: San Francisco 49ers 7 days, Seattle Seahawks 7 days.