Detroit Lions 2-2
25.4
Arizona Cardinals 1-3
24.001 / THE NUMBER
The model makes this Detroit Lions -1.4. The market has it Detroit Lions -4, a gap of 2.6 points toward Arizona Cardinals.
Tested against closing lines on 1,171 games since 2022, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.
02 / PROJECTED SCORE
03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM
Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 1.3 toward Detroit Lions.
04 / QUARTERBACK
| Starter | Team | Adjustment, EPA / dropback |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | +0.000 |
| Jacoby Brissett | Arizona Cardinals | +0.000 |
Each listed starter measured against whoever actually played in the games these ratings were built from. Zero means the starter is the same quarterback already in the numbers.
05 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs the league
| Percentile, 0–100 | Detroit Lions off | Arizona Cardi. off | Detroit Lions def | Arizona Cardi. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 77 | 52 | 39 | 13 |
| Rushing | 26 | 55 | 39 | 58 |
| Pass cons. | 74 | 58 | 48 | 23 |
| Rush cons. | 32 | 65 | 81 | 45 |
| Pass rate | 77 | 100 | 10 | 58 |
| Pace | 81 | 90 | 3 | 42 |
06 / TEAM RATINGS
| Per play, vs average | Detroit Lions off | Arizona Cardi. off | Detroit Lions def | Arizona Cardi. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA / dropback | +0.076 | -0.022 | +0.007 | +0.046 |
| Rush EPA / carry | -0.030 | +0.000 | +0.002 | -0.003 |
| Pass success rate | +0.018 | +0.005 | +0.003 | +0.013 |
| Rush success rate | -0.018 | +0.008 | -0.014 | -0.000 |
| Pass rate | +0.011 | +0.042 | +0.016 | -0.009 |
| Plays per game | +0.9 | +1.7 | +1.6 | -0.0 |
Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season. On defence, negative is good. Rest: Detroit Lions 7 days, Arizona Cardinals 7 days.