Las Vegas Raiders 3-1
18.4
New England Patriots 2-2
23.901 / THE NUMBER
The model makes this New England Patriots -5.5. The market has it New England Patriots -3.5, a gap of 2.0 points toward New England Patriots.
Tested against closing lines on 1,171 games since 2022, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.
02 / PROJECTED SCORE
03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM
Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 6.0 toward New England Patriots.
04 / QUARTERBACK
| Starter | Team | Adjustment, EPA / dropback |
|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | +0.000 |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | +0.004 |
Each listed starter measured against whoever actually played in the games these ratings were built from. Zero means the starter is the same quarterback already in the numbers.
05 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs the league
| Percentile, 0–100 | Las Vegas Rai. off | New England P. off | Las Vegas Rai. def | New England P. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 48 | 68 | 48 | 87 |
| Rushing | 0 | 16 | 77 | 68 |
| Pass cons. | 42 | 84 | 29 | 84 |
| Rush cons. | 3 | 10 | 48 | 84 |
| Pass rate | 65 | 42 | 94 | 6 |
| Pace | 39 | 68 | 52 | 81 |
06 / TEAM RATINGS
| Per play, vs average | Las Vegas Rai. off | New England P. off | Las Vegas Rai. def | New England P. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA / dropback | -0.033 | +0.030 | +0.002 | -0.044 |
| Rush EPA / carry | -0.105 | -0.048 | -0.005 | -0.003 |
| Pass success rate | -0.008 | +0.025 | +0.009 | -0.015 |
| Rush success rate | -0.059 | -0.043 | -0.005 | -0.015 |
| Pass rate | +0.009 | +0.002 | -0.017 | +0.022 |
| Plays per game | -0.5 | +0.6 | -0.1 | -0.7 |
Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season. On defence, negative is good. Rest: Las Vegas Raiders 7 days, New England Patriots 7 days.