Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-4
23.9
Dallas Cowboys 2-2
27.801 / THE NUMBER
The model makes this Dallas Cowboys -3.9. The market has it Dallas Cowboys -9.5, a gap of 5.6 points toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tested against closing lines on 1,171 games since 2022, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.
02 / PROJECTED SCORE
03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM
Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 3.7 toward Dallas Cowboys.
04 / QUARTERBACK
| Starter | Team | Adjustment, EPA / dropback |
|---|---|---|
| Jalon Daniels | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.014 |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | +0.000 |
Each listed starter measured against whoever actually played in the games these ratings were built from. Zero means the starter is the same quarterback already in the numbers.
05 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs the league
| Percentile, 0–100 | Tampa Bay Buc. off | Dallas Cowboys off | Tampa Bay Buc. def | Dallas Cowboys def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 23 | 90 | 52 | 0 |
| Rushing | 58 | 94 | 74 | 6 |
| Pass cons. | 32 | 87 | 26 | 0 |
| Rush cons. | 45 | 81 | 90 | 6 |
| Pass rate | 58 | 94 | 26 | 74 |
| Pace | 48 | 94 | 100 | 39 |
06 / TEAM RATINGS
| Per play, vs average | Tampa Bay Buc. off | Dallas Cowboys off | Tampa Bay Buc. def | Dallas Cowboys def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA / dropback | -0.057 | +0.093 | +0.002 | +0.106 |
| Rush EPA / carry | +0.003 | +0.044 | -0.005 | +0.013 |
| Pass success rate | -0.015 | +0.031 | +0.011 | +0.055 |
| Rush success rate | -0.007 | +0.028 | -0.017 | +0.028 |
| Pass rate | +0.008 | +0.025 | +0.011 | -0.013 |
| Plays per game | -0.1 | +2.1 | -1.7 | +0.0 |
Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season. On defence, negative is good. Rest: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 days, Dallas Cowboys 4 days.