Cincinnati Bengals 2-2
24.9
Miami Dolphins 0-4
22.901 / THE NUMBER
The model makes this Cincinnati Bengals -2.1. The market has it Cincinnati Bengals -7, a gap of 4.9 points toward Miami Dolphins.
Tested against closing lines on 1,171 games since 2022, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.
02 / PROJECTED SCORE
03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM
Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 2.4 toward Cincinnati Bengals.
04 / QUARTERBACK
| Starter | Team | Adjustment, EPA / dropback |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | +0.000 |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | +0.000 |
Each listed starter measured against whoever actually played in the games these ratings were built from. Zero means the starter is the same quarterback already in the numbers.
05 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs the league
| Percentile, 0–100 | Cincinnati Be. off | Miami Dolphins off | Cincinnati Be. def | Miami Dolphins def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 58 | 26 | 16 | 10 |
| Rushing | 77 | 48 | 19 | 52 |
| Pass cons. | 61 | 10 | 6 | 3 |
| Rush cons. | 71 | 16 | 52 | 32 |
| Pass rate | 97 | 26 | 13 | 87 |
| Pace | 77 | 0 | 23 | 87 |
06 / TEAM RATINGS
| Per play, vs average | Cincinnati Be. off | Miami Dolphins off | Cincinnati Be. def | Miami Dolphins def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA / dropback | +0.014 | -0.054 | +0.041 | +0.049 |
| Rush EPA / carry | +0.032 | -0.005 | +0.006 | -0.001 |
| Pass success rate | +0.009 | -0.030 | +0.019 | +0.033 |
| Rush success rate | +0.020 | -0.034 | -0.008 | +0.006 |
| Pass rate | +0.040 | -0.011 | +0.014 | -0.017 |
| Plays per game | +0.8 | -3.7 | +0.5 | -0.7 |
Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season. On defence, negative is good. Rest: Cincinnati Bengals 7 days, Miami Dolphins 7 days.