Minnesota Vikings 4-0
17.9
New Orleans Saints 1-3
20.001 / THE NUMBER
The model makes this New Orleans Saints -2.1. The market has it Minnesota Vikings -1.5, a gap of 3.6 points toward New Orleans Saints.
Tested against closing lines on 1,171 games since 2022, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.
02 / PROJECTED SCORE
03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM
Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 1.5 toward New Orleans Saints.
04 / QUARTERBACK
| Starter | Team | Adjustment, EPA / dropback |
|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | Minnesota Vikings | +0.005 |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | +0.000 |
Each listed starter measured against whoever actually played in the games these ratings were built from. Zero means the starter is the same quarterback already in the numbers.
05 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs the league
| Percentile, 0–100 | Minnesota Vik. off | New Orleans S. off | Minnesota Vik. def | New Orleans S. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 0 | 29 | 100 | 58 |
| Rushing | 23 | 35 | 81 | 45 |
| Pass cons. | 0 | 52 | 94 | 58 |
| Rush cons. | 13 | 52 | 71 | 19 |
| Pass rate | 39 | 84 | 77 | 84 |
| Pace | 6 | 97 | 74 | 65 |
06 / TEAM RATINGS
| Per play, vs average | Minnesota Vik. off | New Orleans S. off | Minnesota Vik. def | New Orleans S. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA / dropback | -0.107 | -0.050 | -0.065 | -0.004 |
| Rush EPA / carry | -0.036 | -0.021 | -0.006 | +0.001 |
| Pass success rate | -0.053 | -0.003 | -0.036 | -0.000 |
| Rush success rate | -0.039 | -0.004 | -0.013 | +0.016 |
| Pass rate | -0.000 | +0.017 | -0.013 | -0.016 |
| Plays per game | -1.5 | +3.0 | -0.4 | -0.3 |
Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season. On defence, negative is good. Rest: Minnesota Vikings 7 days, New Orleans Saints 6 days.