Chicago Bears 3-1
26.4
Green Bay Packers 2-2
26.201 / THE NUMBER
The model makes this Chicago Bears -0.2. The market has it Chicago Bears -2.5, a gap of 2.3 points toward Green Bay Packers.
Tested against closing lines on 1,171 games since 2022, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.
02 / PROJECTED SCORE
03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM
Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 0.2 toward Chicago Bears.
04 / QUARTERBACK
| Starter | Team | Adjustment, EPA / dropback |
|---|---|---|
| Tyson Bagent | Chicago Bears | -0.013 |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | -0.000 |
Each listed starter measured against whoever actually played in the games these ratings were built from. Zero means the starter is the same quarterback already in the numbers.
05 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs the league
| Percentile, 0–100 | Chicago Bears off | Green Bay Pac. off | Chicago Bears def | Green Bay Pac. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 84 | 87 | 65 | 23 |
| Rushing | 68 | 10 | 10 | 42 |
| Pass cons. | 81 | 68 | 55 | 13 |
| Rush cons. | 68 | 55 | 13 | 26 |
| Pass rate | 13 | 55 | 55 | 81 |
| Pace | 100 | 26 | 97 | 6 |
06 / TEAM RATINGS
| Per play, vs average | Chicago Bears off | Green Bay Pac. off | Chicago Bears def | Green Bay Pac. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA / dropback | +0.090 | +0.090 | -0.012 | +0.040 |
| Rush EPA / carry | +0.017 | -0.070 | +0.008 | +0.001 |
| Pass success rate | +0.022 | +0.015 | +0.000 | +0.015 |
| Rush success rate | +0.017 | -0.003 | +0.023 | +0.013 |
| Pass rate | -0.027 | +0.008 | -0.006 | -0.013 |
| Plays per game | +3.8 | -0.8 | -1.3 | +1.4 |
Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season. On defence, negative is good. Rest: Chicago Bears 7 days, Green Bay Packers 7 days.