Denver Broncos 2-2
21.5
Los Angeles Chargers 0-4
18.901 / THE NUMBER
The model makes this Denver Broncos -2.6. The market has it Denver Broncos -3.5, a gap of 0.9 points toward Los Angeles Chargers.
Tested against closing lines on 1,171 games since 2022, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.
02 / PROJECTED SCORE
03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM
Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 2.7 toward Denver Broncos.
04 / QUARTERBACK
| Starter | Team | Adjustment, EPA / dropback |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | +0.000 |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | -0.000 |
Each listed starter measured against whoever actually played in the games these ratings were built from. Zero means the starter is the same quarterback already in the numbers.
05 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs the league
| Percentile, 0–100 | Denver Broncos off | Los Angeles C. off | Denver Broncos def | Los Angeles C. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 55 | 3 | 97 | 71 |
| Rushing | 61 | 29 | 55 | 84 |
| Pass cons. | 39 | 23 | 100 | 71 |
| Rush cons. | 48 | 58 | 94 | 68 |
| Pass rate | 90 | 81 | 19 | 90 |
| Pace | 42 | 74 | 0 | 94 |
06 / TEAM RATINGS
| Per play, vs average | Denver Broncos off | Los Angeles C. off | Denver Broncos def | Los Angeles C. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA / dropback | +0.013 | -0.096 | -0.058 | -0.026 |
| Rush EPA / carry | +0.014 | -0.027 | -0.001 | -0.006 |
| Pass success rate | -0.011 | -0.023 | -0.042 | -0.007 |
| Rush success rate | -0.006 | +0.003 | -0.023 | -0.012 |
| Pass rate | +0.023 | +0.012 | +0.013 | -0.017 |
| Plays per game | -0.3 | +0.8 | +1.6 | -1.1 |
Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season. On defence, negative is good. Rest: Denver Broncos 7 days, Los Angeles Chargers 7 days.