Indianapolis Colts 2-2
23.2
Pittsburgh Steelers 2-2
24.801 / THE NUMBER
The model makes this Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5. The market has it Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5, a gap of 1.0 points toward Indianapolis Colts.
Tested against closing lines on 1,171 games since 2022, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.
02 / PROJECTED SCORE
03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM
Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 1.9 toward Pittsburgh Steelers.
04 / QUARTERBACK
| Starter | Team | Adjustment, EPA / dropback |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | +0.000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.000 |
Each listed starter measured against whoever actually played in the games these ratings were built from. Zero means the starter is the same quarterback already in the numbers.
05 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs the league
| Percentile, 0–100 | Indianapolis . off | Pittsburgh St. off | Indianapolis . def | Pittsburgh St. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 35 | 39 | 35 | 42 |
| Rushing | 100 | 90 | 29 | 26 |
| Pass cons. | 55 | 45 | 32 | 42 |
| Rush cons. | 97 | 87 | 16 | 42 |
| Pass rate | 16 | 52 | 35 | 45 |
| Pace | 61 | 23 | 13 | 26 |
06 / TEAM RATINGS
| Per play, vs average | Indianapolis . off | Pittsburgh St. off | Indianapolis . def | Pittsburgh St. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA / dropback | -0.046 | -0.046 | +0.011 | +0.006 |
| Rush EPA / carry | +0.126 | +0.043 | +0.002 | +0.003 |
| Pass success rate | -0.002 | -0.007 | +0.008 | +0.004 |
| Rush success rate | +0.060 | +0.029 | +0.016 | +0.000 |
| Pass rate | -0.021 | +0.006 | +0.006 | +0.005 |
| Plays per game | +0.2 | -0.9 | +1.2 | +0.5 |
Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season. On defence, negative is good. Rest: Indianapolis Colts 7 days, Pittsburgh Steelers 10 days.