Baltimore Ravens 3-1
23.0
Atlanta Falcons 2-2
23.101 / THE NUMBER
The model makes this Atlanta Falcons -0.1. The market has it Baltimore Ravens -3.5, a gap of 3.6 points toward Atlanta Falcons.
Tested against closing lines on 1,171 games since 2022, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.
02 / PROJECTED SCORE
03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM
Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 1.5 toward Atlanta Falcons.
04 / QUARTERBACK
| Starter | Team | Adjustment, EPA / dropback |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | +0.009 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | +0.069 |
Each listed starter measured against whoever actually played in the games these ratings were built from. Zero means the starter is the same quarterback already in the numbers.
05 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs the league
| Percentile, 0–100 | Baltimore Rav. off | Atlanta Falco. off | Baltimore Rav. def | Atlanta Falco. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 61 | 6 | 32 | 68 |
| Rushing | 65 | 71 | 94 | 65 |
| Pass cons. | 77 | 35 | 52 | 77 |
| Rush cons. | 39 | 84 | 58 | 74 |
| Pass rate | 10 | 0 | 29 | 3 |
| Pace | 3 | 55 | 16 | 55 |
06 / TEAM RATINGS
| Per play, vs average | Baltimore Rav. off | Atlanta Falco. off | Baltimore Rav. def | Atlanta Falco. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA / dropback | +0.023 | -0.094 | +0.012 | -0.015 |
| Rush EPA / carry | +0.016 | +0.020 | -0.007 | -0.003 |
| Pass success rate | +0.020 | -0.012 | +0.001 | -0.013 |
| Rush success rate | -0.012 | +0.028 | -0.011 | -0.014 |
| Pass rate | -0.031 | -0.051 | +0.011 | +0.026 |
| Plays per game | -2.4 | +0.1 | +0.5 | -0.1 |
Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season. On defence, negative is good. Rest: Baltimore Ravens 7 days, Atlanta Falcons 6 days.