SM
SAM'SMODELS

Week 6 Projections.

A projected score for every game on the board — built from play-by-play efficiency, adjusted for opponent, beside the first line the model saw for that game. Open any game for the full breakdown.

UPDATED TUESDAY 8:47 AM ET
NCAAF ATS RECORD
59-53-2
52.7% · 37-35 on 3+ edges
GAMES
58
this week
MODEL DISAGREES 3+
37
points off the market
BIGGEST GAP
15.3
North Carolina at Pittsburgh

Tuesday, October 6

1 game
8:00 PM ET·Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Southern Miss1-3
20.5
Troy2-2
32.3
Vegas lineTroy -9.5
Model lineTroy -11.7
Model pickTroy -9.5 (2.2)
GAME BREAKDOWN →

Wednesday, October 7

2 games
7:00 PM ET·Fifth Third Stadium
Jacksonville State3-2
28.8
Kennesaw State1-3
27.8
Vegas lineJacksonville State -3
Model lineJacksonville State -1
Model pickKennesaw State +3 (2.0)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Pitbull Stadium
New Mexico State2-3
20.3
Florida International2-2
28.9
Vegas lineFlorida International -4.5
Model lineFlorida International -8.6
Model pickFlorida International -4.5 (4.1)
GAME BREAKDOWN →

Thursday, October 8

4 games
7:00 PM ET·Williams Stadium (VA)
Sam Houston1-3
13.9
Liberty4-1
41.3
Vegas lineLiberty -13.5
Model lineLiberty -27.3
Model pickLiberty -13.5 (13.8)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:00 PM ET·Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Missouri State1-3
26.3
Western Kentucky1-4
28.8
Vegas lineMissouri State -1.5
Model lineWestern Kentucky -2.5
Model pickWestern Kentucky +1.5 (4.0)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Alamodome
South Florida4-1
26.2
UTSA4-1
26.8
Vegas lineUTSA -6.5
Model lineUTSA -0.6
Model pickSouth Florida +6.5 (5.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Centennial Bank Stadium
South Alabama3-2
27.2
Arkansas State2-3
31.4
Vegas lineArkansas State -1.5
Model lineArkansas State -4.1
Model pickArkansas State -1.5 (2.6)
GAME BREAKDOWN →

Friday, October 9

5 games
7:00 PM ET·L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Florida State3-2
25.9
Louisville2-3
32.9
Vegas lineLouisville -6.5
Model lineLouisville -7.1
Model pickLouisville -6.5 (0.6)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
9:00 PM ET·Maverik Stadium
Washington State1-4
25.4
Utah State1-4
25.8
Vegas lineUtah State -3
Model lineUtah State -0.4
Model pickWashington State +3 (2.6)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
9:00 PM ET·CEFCU Stadium
Wyoming2-3
21.2
San José State3-2
29.7
Vegas lineSan José State -6.5
Model lineSan José State -8.5
Model pickSan José State -6.5 (2.0)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
9:00 PM ET·Husky Stadium
Iowa4-1
25.4
Washington3-2
27.5
Vegas lineWashington -2.5
Model lineWashington -2.1
Model pickIowa +2.5 (0.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
10:15 PM ET·LaVell Edwards Stadium
Iowa State3-2
22.8
BYU4-0
33.9
Vegas lineBYU -10.75
Model lineBYU -11.2
Model pickBYU -10.75 (0.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →

Saturday, October 10

46 games
12:00 PM ET·Acrisure Stadium
North Carolina2-2
17.9
Pittsburgh5-0
36.7
Vegas linePittsburgh -3.5
Model linePittsburgh -18.8
Model pickPittsburgh -3.5 (15.3)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
12:00 PM ET·Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Indiana5-0
33.7
Nebraska5-0
21.1
Vegas lineIndiana -9.5
Model lineIndiana -12.6
Model pickIndiana -9.5 (3.1)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
12:00 PM ET·Milan Puskar Stadium
Arizona4-1
32.6
West Virginia3-2
22.2
Vegas lineArizona -3
Model lineArizona -10.4
Model pickArizona -3 (7.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
12:00 PM ET·Michie Stadium
Tulane2-2
25.1
Army2-2
32.5
Vegas lineArmy -3.5
Model lineArmy -7.4
Model pickArmy -3.5 (3.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
12:00 PM ET·Carter-Finley Stadium
Wake Forest4-1
29.8
NC State3-2
27.4
Vegas lineWake Forest -2.5
Model lineWake Forest -2.4
Model pickNC State +2.5 (0.1)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
12:00 PM ET·Memorial Stadium
Texas A&M3-2
23.7
Missouri4-1
28.6
Vegas lineMissouri -3
Model lineMissouri -4.9
Model pickMissouri -3 (1.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
12:00 PM ET·Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Sacramento State1-4
23.3
Bowling Green1-4
26.4
Vegas lineBowling Green -7
Model lineBowling Green -3.1
Model pickSacramento State +7 (3.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
12:00 PM ET·Boone Pickens Stadium
UCF3-2
27.1
Oklahoma State3-1
25.6
Vegas lineOklahoma State -10.5
Model lineUCF -1.5
Model pickUCF +10.5 (12.0)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
12:30 PM ET·Ryan Field
Ball State1-4
11.9
Northwestern3-1
45.0
Vegas lineNorthwestern -34.5
Model lineNorthwestern -33.1
Model pickBall State +34.5 (1.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
12:45 PM ET·Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
South Carolina2-3
24.6
Florida4-1
31.6
Vegas lineFlorida -14
Model lineFlorida -7
Model pickSouth Carolina +14 (7.0)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
1:00 PM ET·Kidd Brewer Stadium
Old Dominion1-4
21.8
App State3-1
28.2
Vegas lineApp State -9.5
Model lineApp State -6.4
Model pickOld Dominion +9.5 (3.1)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
2:00 PM ET·Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Miami (OH)2-3
27.7
Massachusetts4-1
26.1
Vegas lineMiami (OH) -2.5
Model lineMiami (OH) -1.6
Model pickMassachusetts +2.5 (0.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Tulsa3-2
19.3
Navy1-3
34.0
Vegas lineNavy -3
Model lineNavy -14.6
Model pickNavy -3 (11.6)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·FirstBank Stadium
Ole Miss3-1
30.2
Vanderbilt3-2
31.7
Vegas lineOle Miss -10.5
Model lineVanderbilt -1.5
Model pickVanderbilt +10.5 (12.0)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Cotton Bowl
Texas4-0
25.1
Oklahoma2-2
18.3
Vegas lineTexas -9
Model lineTexas -6.8
Model pickOklahoma +9 (2.2)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Peden Stadium
Central Michigan3-2
23.0
Ohio3-2
32.2
Vegas lineOhio -3.5
Model lineOhio -9.2
Model pickOhio -3.5 (5.7)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Houston4-1
25.5
Kansas State3-1
33.2
Vegas lineKansas State -2.5
Model lineKansas State -7.7
Model pickKansas State -2.5 (5.2)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·California Memorial Stadium
Virginia Tech4-1
31.4
California2-3
26.2
Vegas lineVirginia Tech -12.5
Model lineVirginia Tech -5.2
Model pickCalifornia +12.5 (7.3)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Glass Bowl
Buffalo2-3
12.7
Toledo4-1
37.9
Vegas lineToledo -19.5
Model lineToledo -25.2
Model pickToledo -19.5 (5.7)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·InfoCision Stadium
Eastern Michigan3-3
31.9
Akron1-4
24.0
Vegas lineEastern Michigan -6.5
Model lineEastern Michigan -7.9
Model pickEastern Michigan -6.5 (1.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Bobby Dodd Stadium
Duke4-0
28.8
Georgia Tech1-3
28.6
Vegas lineDuke -6.5
Model lineDuke -0.1
Model pickGeorgia Tech +6.5 (6.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Waldo Stadium
Kent State2-3
15.1
Western Michigan3-2
37.8
Vegas lineWestern Michigan -13.5
Model lineWestern Michigan -22.7
Model pickWestern Michigan -13.5 (9.2)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Notre Dame Stadium
Stanford2-3
4.9
Notre Dame5-0
49.4
Vegas lineNotre Dame -36.5
Model lineNotre Dame -44.4
Model pickNotre Dame -36.5 (7.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Spartan Stadium
Illinois2-3
28.4
Michigan State2-3
28.8
Vegas lineIllinois -3.5
Model lineMichigan State -0.4
Model pickMichigan State +3.5 (3.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Autzen Stadium
UCLA4-0
21.8
Oregon3-1
36.4
Vegas lineOregon -12
Model lineOregon -14.6
Model pickOregon -12 (2.6)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·DATCU Stadium
Charlotte0-5
9.7
North Texas3-2
47.6
Vegas lineNorth Texas -27.5
Model lineNorth Texas -37.9
Model pickNorth Texas -27.5 (10.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:45 PM ET·Lincoln Financial Field
UConn2-3
28.2
Temple2-3
30.1
Vegas lineTemple -3.5
Model lineTemple -1.9
Model pickUConn +3.5 (1.6)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
4:00 PM ET·Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Rice1-4
15.9
East Carolina2-2
35.7
Vegas lineEast Carolina -10
Model lineEast Carolina -19.8
Model pickEast Carolina -10 (9.8)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
4:15 PM ET·Ohio Stadium
Maryland2-3
9.0
Ohio State4-1
46.8
Vegas lineOhio State -35.5
Model lineOhio State -37.8
Model pickOhio State -35.5 (2.3)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
4:15 PM ET·Razorback Stadium
Tennessee4-1
32.9
Arkansas2-3
25.1
Vegas lineTennessee -13.5
Model lineTennessee -7.8
Model pickArkansas +13.5 (5.7)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
6:00 PM ET·Reser Stadium
San Diego State2-3
21.1
Oregon State3-2
28.5
Vegas lineOregon State -15.5
Model lineOregon State -7.4
Model pickSan Diego State +15.5 (8.1)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:00 PM ET·Allegiant Stadium
North Dakota State5-0
27.7
UNLV3-2
27.6
Vegas lineNorth Dakota State -3.5
Model lineNorth Dakota State -0.1
Model pickUNLV +3.5 (3.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:00 PM ET·Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
UAB3-2
21.4
Memphis4-1
38.2
Vegas lineMemphis -14.5
Model lineMemphis -16.7
Model pickMemphis -14.5 (2.2)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:00 PM ET·Sun Bowl
Nevada1-3
30.6
UTEP1-4
21.9
Vegas lineNevada -9.5
Model lineNevada -8.6
Model pickUTEP +9.5 (0.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:00 PM ET·Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Coastal Carolina1-4
22.9
Marshall3-2
32.3
Vegas lineMarshall -2.75
Model lineMarshall -9.4
Model pickMarshall -2.75 (6.7)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:00 PM ET·Kroger Field
LSU4-1
29.9
Kentucky4-1
22.2
Vegas lineLSU -10
Model lineLSU -7.7
Model pickKentucky +10 (2.3)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Huskie Stadium
Air Force3-1
31.1
Northern Illinois0-4
25.5
Vegas lineAir Force -10
Model lineAir Force -5.6
Model pickNorthern Illinois +10 (4.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Allen E. Paulson Stadium
James Madison5-0
35.5
Georgia Southern2-3
20.8
Vegas lineJames Madison -8.5
Model lineJames Madison -14.6
Model pickJames Madison -8.5 (6.1)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Bryant-Denny Stadium
Georgia5-0
26.3
Alabama5-0
29.4
Vegas lineGeorgia -2
Model lineAlabama -3.1
Model pickAlabama +2 (5.1)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Joe Aillet Stadium
Louisiana4-1
22.2
Louisiana Tech2-2
28.0
Vegas lineLouisiana Tech -2.5
Model lineLouisiana Tech -5.8
Model pickLouisiana Tech -2.5 (3.3)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Beaver Stadium
USC5-1
25.8
Penn State3-2
30.3
Vegas lineUSC -1.5
Model linePenn State -4.5
Model pickPenn State +1.5 (6.0)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Scott Stadium
Syracuse2-2
18.7
Virginia3-2
35.7
Vegas lineVirginia -8.5
Model lineVirginia -17
Model pickVirginia -8.5 (8.5)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
8:00 PM ET·Ross-Ade Stadium
Minnesota4-1
27.4
Purdue2-3
28.1
Vegas lineMinnesota -2.5
Model linePurdue -0.7
Model pickPurdue +2.5 (3.2)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
9:30 PM ET·Mountain America Stadium
Hawai'i1-4
21.0
Arizona State2-2
35.2
Vegas lineArizona State -20.5
Model lineArizona State -14.3
Model pickHawai'i +20.5 (6.2)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
10:15 PM ET·Rice-Eccles Stadium
Kansas2-2
21.7
Utah4-0
36.4
Vegas lineUtah -15.5
Model lineUtah -14.8
Model pickKansas +15.5 (0.7)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
10:30 PM ET·Valley Children's Stadium
Boise State4-1
27.4
Fresno State4-1
26.6
Vegas lineBoise State -6.25
Model lineBoise State -0.9
Model pickFresno State +6.25 (5.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →