SM
SAM'SMODELS
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Biggest disagreements.

Week 6 games where the model is at least 3 points away from the market, largest gap first.

12:00 PM ET·Acrisure Stadium
North Carolina2-2
17.9
Pittsburgh5-0
36.7
Vegas linePittsburgh -3.5
Model linePittsburgh -18.8
Model pickPittsburgh -3.5 (15.3)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:00 PM ET·Williams Stadium (VA)
Sam Houston1-3
13.9
Liberty4-1
41.3
Vegas lineLiberty -13.5
Model lineLiberty -27.3
Model pickLiberty -13.5 (13.8)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
12:00 PM ET·Boone Pickens Stadium
UCF3-2
27.1
Oklahoma State3-1
25.6
Vegas lineOklahoma State -10.5
Model lineUCF -1.5
Model pickUCF +10.5 (12.0)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·FirstBank Stadium
Ole Miss3-1
30.2
Vanderbilt3-2
31.7
Vegas lineOle Miss -10.5
Model lineVanderbilt -1.5
Model pickVanderbilt +10.5 (12.0)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Tulsa3-2
19.3
Navy1-3
34.0
Vegas lineNavy -3
Model lineNavy -14.6
Model pickNavy -3 (11.6)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·DATCU Stadium
Charlotte0-5
9.7
North Texas3-2
47.6
Vegas lineNorth Texas -27.5
Model lineNorth Texas -37.9
Model pickNorth Texas -27.5 (10.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
4:00 PM ET·Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Rice1-4
15.9
East Carolina2-2
35.7
Vegas lineEast Carolina -10
Model lineEast Carolina -19.8
Model pickEast Carolina -10 (9.8)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Waldo Stadium
Kent State2-3
15.1
Western Michigan3-2
37.8
Vegas lineWestern Michigan -13.5
Model lineWestern Michigan -22.7
Model pickWestern Michigan -13.5 (9.2)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Scott Stadium
Syracuse2-2
18.7
Virginia3-2
35.7
Vegas lineVirginia -8.5
Model lineVirginia -17
Model pickVirginia -8.5 (8.5)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
6:00 PM ET·Reser Stadium
San Diego State2-3
21.1
Oregon State3-2
28.5
Vegas lineOregon State -15.5
Model lineOregon State -7.4
Model pickSan Diego State +15.5 (8.1)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Notre Dame Stadium
Stanford2-3
4.9
Notre Dame5-0
49.4
Vegas lineNotre Dame -36.5
Model lineNotre Dame -44.4
Model pickNotre Dame -36.5 (7.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
12:00 PM ET·Milan Puskar Stadium
Arizona4-1
32.6
West Virginia3-2
22.2
Vegas lineArizona -3
Model lineArizona -10.4
Model pickArizona -3 (7.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·California Memorial Stadium
Virginia Tech4-1
31.4
California2-3
26.2
Vegas lineVirginia Tech -12.5
Model lineVirginia Tech -5.2
Model pickCalifornia +12.5 (7.3)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
12:45 PM ET·Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
South Carolina2-3
24.6
Florida4-1
31.6
Vegas lineFlorida -14
Model lineFlorida -7
Model pickSouth Carolina +14 (7.0)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:00 PM ET·Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Coastal Carolina1-4
22.9
Marshall3-2
32.3
Vegas lineMarshall -2.75
Model lineMarshall -9.4
Model pickMarshall -2.75 (6.7)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Bobby Dodd Stadium
Duke4-0
28.8
Georgia Tech1-3
28.6
Vegas lineDuke -6.5
Model lineDuke -0.1
Model pickGeorgia Tech +6.5 (6.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
9:30 PM ET·Mountain America Stadium
Hawai'i1-4
21.0
Arizona State2-2
35.2
Vegas lineArizona State -20.5
Model lineArizona State -14.3
Model pickHawai'i +20.5 (6.2)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Allen E. Paulson Stadium
James Madison5-0
35.5
Georgia Southern2-3
20.8
Vegas lineJames Madison -8.5
Model lineJames Madison -14.6
Model pickJames Madison -8.5 (6.1)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Beaver Stadium
USC5-1
25.8
Penn State3-2
30.3
Vegas lineUSC -1.5
Model linePenn State -4.5
Model pickPenn State +1.5 (6.0)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Alamodome
South Florida4-1
26.2
UTSA4-1
26.8
Vegas lineUTSA -6.5
Model lineUTSA -0.6
Model pickSouth Florida +6.5 (5.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Peden Stadium
Central Michigan3-2
23.0
Ohio3-2
32.2
Vegas lineOhio -3.5
Model lineOhio -9.2
Model pickOhio -3.5 (5.7)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
4:15 PM ET·Razorback Stadium
Tennessee4-1
32.9
Arkansas2-3
25.1
Vegas lineTennessee -13.5
Model lineTennessee -7.8
Model pickArkansas +13.5 (5.7)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Glass Bowl
Buffalo2-3
12.7
Toledo4-1
37.9
Vegas lineToledo -19.5
Model lineToledo -25.2
Model pickToledo -19.5 (5.7)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
10:30 PM ET·Valley Children's Stadium
Boise State4-1
27.4
Fresno State4-1
26.6
Vegas lineBoise State -6.25
Model lineBoise State -0.9
Model pickFresno State +6.25 (5.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Houston4-1
25.5
Kansas State3-1
33.2
Vegas lineKansas State -2.5
Model lineKansas State -7.7
Model pickKansas State -2.5 (5.2)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Bryant-Denny Stadium
Georgia5-0
26.3
Alabama5-0
29.4
Vegas lineGeorgia -2
Model lineAlabama -3.1
Model pickAlabama +2 (5.1)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Huskie Stadium
Air Force3-1
31.1
Northern Illinois0-4
25.5
Vegas lineAir Force -10
Model lineAir Force -5.6
Model pickNorthern Illinois +10 (4.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Pitbull Stadium
New Mexico State2-3
20.3
Florida International2-2
28.9
Vegas lineFlorida International -4.5
Model lineFlorida International -8.6
Model pickFlorida International -4.5 (4.1)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:00 PM ET·Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Missouri State1-3
26.3
Western Kentucky1-4
28.8
Vegas lineMissouri State -1.5
Model lineWestern Kentucky -2.5
Model pickWestern Kentucky +1.5 (4.0)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
12:00 PM ET·Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Sacramento State1-4
23.3
Bowling Green1-4
26.4
Vegas lineBowling Green -7
Model lineBowling Green -3.1
Model pickSacramento State +7 (3.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
3:30 PM ET·Spartan Stadium
Illinois2-3
28.4
Michigan State2-3
28.8
Vegas lineIllinois -3.5
Model lineMichigan State -0.4
Model pickMichigan State +3.5 (3.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
12:00 PM ET·Michie Stadium
Tulane2-2
25.1
Army2-2
32.5
Vegas lineArmy -3.5
Model lineArmy -7.4
Model pickArmy -3.5 (3.9)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:00 PM ET·Allegiant Stadium
North Dakota State5-0
27.7
UNLV3-2
27.6
Vegas lineNorth Dakota State -3.5
Model lineNorth Dakota State -0.1
Model pickUNLV +3.5 (3.4)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
7:30 PM ET·Joe Aillet Stadium
Louisiana4-1
22.2
Louisiana Tech2-2
28.0
Vegas lineLouisiana Tech -2.5
Model lineLouisiana Tech -5.8
Model pickLouisiana Tech -2.5 (3.3)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
8:00 PM ET·Ross-Ade Stadium
Minnesota4-1
27.4
Purdue2-3
28.1
Vegas lineMinnesota -2.5
Model linePurdue -0.7
Model pickPurdue +2.5 (3.2)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
12:00 PM ET·Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Indiana5-0
33.7
Nebraska5-0
21.1
Vegas lineIndiana -9.5
Model lineIndiana -12.6
Model pickIndiana -9.5 (3.1)
GAME BREAKDOWN →
1:00 PM ET·Kidd Brewer Stadium
Old Dominion1-4
21.8
App State3-1
28.2
Vegas lineApp State -9.5
Model lineApp State -6.4
Model pickOld Dominion +9.5 (3.1)
GAME BREAKDOWN →