Every model, every number and every projection on this site is my own. I like data science and I like sports, so I built something that sits at the middle of both.
The model reads play-by-play data, rates every team against the schedule it has actually faced, and projects a score for every game on the board. The market's number sits next to mine so you can see exactly where we disagree — and every projection is graded once the game finishes, win or lose.
Ratings are built from expected points added on each snap: passing, rushing, how consistently a team stays on schedule, and how fast they play.
A good number against a hard schedule outranks the same number against a soft one. Every rating is solved against the full slate of opponents.
A projection is written once, against the first line seen, and never re-priced — the number here on Friday is the number that was here on Monday. Every one is scored after the game. The record is the whole record, not the good weeks.