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SAM'SMODELS
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NFL record.

Every finished game where the model had both a projection and a line. Graded against the first line the model ever saw for that game — not a number found later, and never re-priced as the market moved. Tap a tile to filter the list.

ALL PICKS
25-6-1
80.6% · 10-1 on 3+ edges
EDGE 3+
10-1
90.9% · +8.1 units
EDGE 6+
3-1
75.0% · +1.7 units
EDGE 10+
—
no graded games 10+ yet
Showing every pick
2026-10-05ATL at NO
PickATL +2.5
Edge1.8
Projected21.4–22.1
Final45–24
ResultWIN
2026-10-04IND at WAS
PickIND -3
Edge0.9
Projected25.8–21.9
Final30–13
ResultWIN
2026-10-04TEN at BAL
PickTEN +11.5
Edge3.8
Projected18.8–26.4
Final18–24
ResultWIN
2026-10-04NE at BUF
PickNE +7
Edge2.4
Projected23.7–28.3
Final29–26
ResultWIN
2026-10-04NYJ at CHI
PickCHI -3
Edge5.3
Projected19.5–27.9
Final12–23
ResultWIN
2026-10-04JAX at CIN
PickJAX +2.5
Edge6.2
Projected27.5–23.8
Final22–17
ResultWIN
2026-10-04DAL at HOU
PickDAL +2.5
Edge0.9
Projected22.2–23.8
Final34–30
ResultWIN
2026-10-04ARI at NYG
PickARI -1
Edge0.6
Projected24.4–22.8
Final24–36
ResultLOSS
2026-10-04LA at PHI
PickLA -1.5
Edge4.5
Projected25.8–19.7
Final24–20
ResultWIN
2026-10-04GB at TB
PickTB +3.5
Edge3.5
Projected23.5–23.6
Final17–14
ResultWIN
2026-10-04MIA at MIN
PickMIA +10
Edge7.6
Projected18.9–21.3
Final10–15
ResultWIN
2026-10-04KC at LV
PickLV +4.5
Edge0.2
Projected24.6–20.3
Final30–27
ResultWIN
2026-10-04LAC at SEA
PickSEA -6.5
Edge0.4
Projected17.1–24.1
Final23–30
ResultWIN
2026-10-04DEN at SF
PickSF -3
Edge0.7
Projected24.3–28.0
Final14–24
ResultWIN
2026-10-04DET at CAR
PickCAR +3
Edge2.6
Projected23.7–23.4
Final26–32
ResultWIN
2026-10-01PIT at CLE
PickCLE +2.5
Edge3.7
Projected19.1–20.3
Final24–27
ResultWIN
2026-09-28PHI at CHI
PickCHI +3.5
Edge8.5
Projected19.6–24.6
Final7–27
ResultWIN
2026-09-27LAC at BUF
PickBUF -7
Edge0.7
Projected21.8–29.5
Final16–24
ResultWIN
2026-09-27CAR at CLE
PickCAR -2.5
Edge1.5
Projected22.4–18.5
Final18–21
ResultLOSS
2026-09-27NYJ at DET
PickDET -6.5
Edge1.4
Projected18.4–26.3
Final24–31
ResultWIN
2026-09-27HOU at IND
PickIND +2.5
Edge5.2
Projected20.0–22.8
Final17–19
ResultWIN
2026-09-27NE at JAX
PickJAX -3
Edge0.1
Projected22.6–25.7
Final6–35
ResultWIN
2026-09-27KC at MIA
PickMIA +11.5
Edge8.1
Projected26.6–23.1
Final24–10
ResultLOSS
2026-09-27TEN at NYG
PickTEN +3.5
Edge0.5
Projected21.5–24.5
Final7–12
ResultLOSS
2026-09-27CIN at PIT
PickPIT +3.5
Edge5.8
Projected22.0–24.2
Final27–30
ResultWIN
2026-09-27SEA at WAS
PickWAS +7
Edge1.5
Projected27.0–21.5
Final31–33
ResultWIN
2026-09-27ARI at SF
PickARI +8.5
Edge0.8
Projected22.2–29.9
Final30–36
ResultWIN
2026-09-27MIN at TB
PickTB +1.5
Edge1.2
Projected21.4–21.1
Final23–16
ResultLOSS
2026-09-27BAL at DAL
PickBAL -3
Edge0.8
Projected26.6–22.9
Final34–31
ResultPUSH
2026-09-27LV at NO
PickNO -3
Edge1.6
Projected17.7–22.3
Final35–27
ResultLOSS
2026-09-27LA at DEN
PickDEN +2.5
Edge0.5
Projected22.6–20.6
Final26–30
ResultWIN
2026-09-24ATL at GB
PickATL +6
Edge1.2
Projected20.8–25.7
Final35–14
ResultWIN

Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. At these sample sizes every line here is still noise — the record is kept to be counted honestly, not to be impressive early.