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NCAAF record.

Every finished game where the model had both a projection and a line. Graded against the first line the model ever saw for that game — not a number found later, and never re-priced as the market moved. Tap a tile to filter the list.

ALL PICKS
59-53-2
52.7% · 37-35 on 3+ edges
 EDGE 3+
37-35
51.4% · -1.4 units
 EDGE 6+
20-17
54.1% · +1.2 units
 EDGE 10+
5-5
50.0% · -0.5 units
Showing every pick
2026-10-04Arkansas State at Louisiana
PickLouisiana -6.5
Edge2.4
Projected22.4–31.3
Final20–23
ResultLOSS
2026-10-04Cincinnati at Arizona
PickArizona -7
Edge3.6
Projected25.2–35.8
Final7–34
ResultWIN
2026-10-04Baylor at Arizona State
PickArizona State -3.5
Edge1.2
Projected25.7–30.4
Final55–19
ResultLOSS
2026-10-04Indiana at Rutgers
PickIndiana -24
Edge3.0
Projected42.4–15.4
Final47–15
ResultWIN
2026-10-04Fresno State at Washington State
PickWashington State -2.5
Edge3.6
Projected22.9–29.0
Final26–6
ResultLOSS
2026-10-04Texas State at San Diego State
PickSan Diego State +3
Edge1.0
Projected28.0–26.0
Final29–31
ResultWIN
2026-10-04San José State at Hawai'i
PickHawai'i -2.5
Edge2.9
Projected25.4–30.8
Final20–16
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Penn State at Northwestern
PickNorthwestern +5.5
Edge0.5
Projected30.0–25.0
Final13–34
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Boston College at SMU
PickSMU -20.5
Edge1.4
Projected14.9–36.9
Final16–25
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Washington at USC
PickWashington +9
Edge1.6
Projected25.0–32.4
Final21–25
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Middle Tennessee at Kansas
PickKansas -19.5
Edge1.7
Projected17.2–38.4
Final0–55
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Arkansas at Texas A&M
PickTexas A&M -15.5
Edge2.8
Projected18.7–36.9
Final7–34
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Kentucky at South Carolina
PickSouth Carolina -3.5
Edge5.0
Projected23.0–31.4
Final35–34
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Michigan State at Wisconsin
PickMichigan State +10.5
Edge3.2
Projected24.5–31.8
Final3–31
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03UTSA at Rice
PickUTSA -10.5
Edge2.1
Projected33.3–20.8
Final16–14
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Vanderbilt at Georgia
PickVanderbilt +24.5
Edge5.4
Projected19.4–38.5
Final14–38
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Old Dominion at Georgia State
PickGeorgia State +2.5
Edge9.2
Projected23.3–30.0
Final10–42
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Ohio at Kent State
PickOhio -4.5
Edge4.7
Projected32.4–23.2
Final13–10
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Florida at Missouri
PickMissouri +5.5
Edge9.4
Projected25.8–29.7
Final17–45
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Marshall at James Madison
PickJames Madison -14.5
Edge9.2
Projected14.7–38.3
Final17–45
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Army at Louisiana Tech
PickLouisiana Tech +3.5
Edge4.1
Projected25.3–25.9
Final29–31
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts
PickEastern Michigan +5.25
Edge0.1
Projected23.6–28.8
Final38–14
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Akron at Central Michigan
PickCentral Michigan -5.5
Edge8.9
Projected19.3–33.7
Final17–41
ResultWIN
2026-10-03BYU at TCU
PickTCU +6.5
Edge5.6
Projected28.2–27.2
Final17–10
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03UCF at Houston
PickUCF +10.5
Edge2.5
Projected24.6–32.6
Final17–27
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Texas Tech at Colorado
PickTexas Tech -15.5
Edge2.8
Projected34.1–15.9
Final29–7
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Louisville at NC State
PickNC State +6.5
Edge2.7
Projected31.3–27.5
Final28–31
ResultWIN
2026-10-03West Virginia at Iowa State
PickIowa State +2.5
Edge21.1
Projected17.2–35.8
Final42–45
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Notre Dame at North Carolina
PickNotre Dame -21.5
Edge4.8
Projected41.0–14.7
Final37–26
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Maryland at Nebraska
PickNebraska -14.5
Edge4.1
Projected17.3–35.9
Final23–48
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Memphis at Charlotte
PickCharlotte +20.5
Edge4.0
Projected35.7–19.2
Final59–8
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Temple at South Florida
PickSouth Florida -5.5
Edge12.6
Projected19.8–37.9
Final17–13
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03UTEP at New Mexico
PickNew Mexico -22.5
Edge3.7
Projected12.9–39.1
Final7–61
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Toledo at Ball State
PickToledo -16.5
Edge6.0
Projected35.8–13.3
Final39–24
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Western Michigan at Buffalo
PickBuffalo +14
Edge8.0
Projected28.3–22.3
Final20–17
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Bowling Green at Miami (OH)
PickMiami (OH) -14.5
Edge0.6
Projected17.2–32.4
Final24–20
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
PickCoastal Carolina +2.5
Edge3.6
Projected28.2–29.3
Final31–24
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Michigan at Minnesota
PickMichigan -6.5
Edge1.8
Projected31.4–23.1
Final14–20
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Auburn at Tennessee
PickAuburn +7.5
Edge0.6
Projected22.4–29.4
Final14–24
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03UL Monroe at South Alabama
PickSouth Alabama -14.5
Edge2.3
Projected19.7–36.6
Final35–52
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Alabama at Mississippi State
PickAlabama -4.25
Edge2.0
Projected30.9–24.7
Final56–23
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Miami at Clemson
PickClemson +18.5
Edge1.7
Projected35.7–19.0
Final41–13
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Stanford at Wake Forest
PickWake Forest -12.5
Edge4.4
Projected16.7–33.6
Final3–57
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Virginia at Florida State
PickFlorida State +3
Edge4.5
Projected28.1–29.6
Final7–38
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Purdue at Illinois
PickIllinois -9.5
Edge6.7
Projected22.4–38.6
Final24–17
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Ohio State at Iowa
PickIowa +14.25
Edge12.1
Projected28.2–26.1
Final31–14
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Navy at Air Force
PickNavy +2.5
Edge6.2
Projected31.8–28.1
Final9–14
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Syracuse at UConn
PickUConn +7.5
Edge19.4
Projected22.5–34.5
Final42–41
ResultWIN
2026-10-03California at UNLV
PickUNLV +1.5
Edge8.6
Projected23.9–31.0
Final31–39
ResultWIN
2026-10-03Wyoming at North Dakota State
PickWyoming +20
Edge6.3
Projected18.5–32.2
Final0–28
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Oregon State at Colorado State
PickColorado State +4.5
Edge6.5
Projected26.4–28.4
Final56–26
ResultLOSS
2026-10-03Utah State at Boise State
PickUtah State +20.5
Edge0.2
Projected16.3–36.6
Final18–37
ResultWIN
2026-10-02Western Kentucky at New Mexico State
PickNew Mexico State -1.5
Edge2.8
Projected24.2–28.5
Final13–34
ResultWIN
2026-10-02North Texas at Tulsa
PickNorth Texas +2.5
Edge14.9
Projected36.4–24.0
Final45–44
ResultWIN
2026-10-02Liberty at Delaware
PickLiberty -7
Edge1.1
Projected31.1–23.1
Final30–14
ResultWIN
2026-10-02Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
PickPittsburgh +6
Edge8.6
Projected29.7–27.1
Final35–33
ResultWIN
2026-09-27Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe
PickUL Monroe +13.5
Edge12.1
Projected28.5–27.1
Final45–17
ResultLOSS
2026-09-27Tulsa at Arkansas
PickArkansas -7
Edge4.7
Projected22.2–33.9
Final6–34
ResultWIN
2026-09-27Missouri State at SMU
PickMissouri State +34.5
Edge6.6
Projected14.3–42.2
Final24–34
ResultWIN
2026-09-27Oregon State at UTEP
PickUTEP +10.5
Edge7.9
Projected27.1–24.5
Final33–7
ResultLOSS
2026-09-27Massachusetts at Sacramento State
PickSacramento State +4.5
Edge14.8
Projected19.7–29.9
Final35–6
ResultLOSS
2026-09-27Rice at Fresno State
PickFresno State -13.5
Edge7.5
Projected13.6–34.7
Final24–38
ResultWIN
2026-09-27Georgia Tech at Stanford
PickStanford +3.5
Edge0.1
Projected29.8–26.4
Final27–34
ResultWIN
2026-09-27Air Force at Nevada
PickNevada +5.5
Edge6.7
Projected27.4–28.6
Final36–33
ResultWIN
2026-09-27Minnesota at Washington
PickWashington -10
Edge6.9
Projected18.7–35.6
Final27–24
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Northwestern at Indiana
PickIndiana -21
Edge9.6
Projected12.1–42.7
Final23–29
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Clemson at California
PickClemson -0.25
Edge1.4
Projected26.8–25.1
Final24–10
ResultWIN
2026-09-26Wake Forest at Louisville
PickLouisville -12.5
Edge1.7
Projected20.2–34.4
Final30–27
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Texas at Tennessee
PickTennessee +5.5
Edge2.4
Projected29.0–25.9
Final20–17
ResultWIN
2026-09-26Ball State at Kent State
PickBall State +3.5
Edge1.4
Projected25.5–27.6
Final13–26
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26UNLV at Akron
PickAkron +13.5
Edge2.0
Projected32.9–21.3
Final38–10
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Colorado State at UTSA
PickUTSA -13.5
Edge3.9
Projected19.8–37.1
Final45–59
ResultWIN
2026-09-26Illinois at Ohio State
PickIllinois +27.5
Edge3.9
Projected17.0–40.6
Final19–42
ResultWIN
2026-09-26Virginia Tech at Boston College
PickBoston College +14
Edge7.3
Projected30.7–24.0
Final21–14
ResultWIN
2026-09-26Colorado at Baylor
PickBaylor -10
Edge8.0
Projected19.1–37.1
Final13–23
ResultPUSH
2026-09-26Sam Houston at Texas Tech
PickTexas Tech -34.5
Edge1.1
Projected7.5–43.1
Final14–49
ResultWIN
2026-09-26San Diego State at Toledo
PickToledo -3
Edge5.9
Projected20.2–29.1
Final16–41
ResultWIN
2026-09-26South Alabama at Kentucky
PickSouth Alabama +20.5
Edge7.0
Projected20.8–34.3
Final21–45
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26UCLA at Maryland
PickMaryland +1.5
Edge6.0
Projected27.2–31.7
Final54–3
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Northern Illinois at Georgia State
PickGeorgia State -10
Edge3.3
Projected22.0–35.2
Final14–35
ResultWIN
2026-09-26Notre Dame at Purdue
PickPurdue +27.75
Edge4.8
Projected39.3–16.4
Final49–10
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Hawai'i at Wyoming
PickWyoming +3
Edge2.3
Projected25.8–25.1
Final10–27
ResultWIN
2026-09-26New Mexico at New Mexico State
PickNew Mexico State +11.5
Edge5.7
Projected28.1–22.3
Final42–18
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Iowa at Michigan
PickIowa +5.5
Edge7.6
Projected28.3–26.2
Final20–19
ResultWIN
2026-09-26Oklahoma at Georgia
PickOklahoma +14
Edge0.2
Projected18.6–32.4
Final13–41
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Ole Miss at Florida
PickOle Miss +3.5
Edge6.7
Projected32.0–28.8
Final28–52
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Utah at Iowa State
PickIowa State +8
Edge3.3
Projected30.5–25.9
Final31–17
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Boise State at Western Michigan
PickWestern Michigan +7
Edge6.3
Projected26.9–26.2
Final32–7
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26UConn at Miami (OH)
PickUConn +3.5
Edge10.2
Projected30.1–23.4
Final21–24
ResultWIN
2026-09-26TCU at UCF
PickUCF +3
Edge3.6
Projected24.0–24.6
Final13–21
ResultWIN
2026-09-26Houston at Georgia Southern
PickGeorgia Southern +18.5
Edge13.6
Projected31.8–26.9
Final42–28
ResultWIN
2026-09-26Vanderbilt at Auburn
PickVanderbilt +9.5
Edge3.2
Projected24.6–30.9
Final15–21
ResultWIN
2026-09-26Wisconsin at Penn State
PickPenn State -10
Edge10.1
Projected16.4–36.5
Final24–20
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26South Florida at Bowling Green
PickSouth Florida -17.5
Edge5.8
Projected38.8–15.5
Final14–6
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Nebraska at Michigan State
PickMichigan State +5.5
Edge3.4
Projected29.0–26.9
Final31–13
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Delaware at Virginia
PickDelaware +19.5
Edge3.7
Projected18.9–34.7
Final3–42
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26James Madison at Old Dominion
PickJames Madison -6
Edge9.0
Projected32.5–17.5
Final46–20
ResultWIN
2026-09-26Louisiana at Charlotte
PickCharlotte +10
Edge3.3
Projected29.8–23.1
Final34–7
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Central Michigan at Miami
PickCentral Michigan +41.5
Edge4.7
Projected7.8–44.6
Final3–52
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26South Carolina at Alabama
PickAlabama -12.5
Edge2.8
Projected18.5–33.8
Final18–49
ResultWIN
2026-09-26Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
PickJacksonville State -7
Edge6.3
Projected21.5–34.8
Final13–23
ResultWIN
2026-09-26Oklahoma State at West Virginia
PickWest Virginia -1.5
Edge7.0
Projected21.6–30.1
Final41–24
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Kansas State at Cincinnati
PickCincinnati +6.5
Edge5.8
Projected30.6–29.9
Final26–31
ResultWIN
2026-09-26Kennesaw State at Arkansas State
PickArkansas State -6
Edge0.1
Projected24.8–30.9
Final14–17
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Southern Miss at Tulane
PickSouthern Miss +18.5
Edge3.9
Projected20.2–34.8
Final21–24
ResultWIN
2026-09-26Oregon at USC
PickUSC +3
Edge4.9
Projected26.9–28.8
Final41–27
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26App State at NC State
PickNC State -14
Edge0.4
Projected21.6–36.0
Final31–41
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Troy at Utah State
PickTroy +3
Edge1.8
Projected25.3–26.5
Final10–21
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Arizona at Washington State
PickWashington State +10
Edge8.2
Projected28.6–26.8
Final34–24
ResultPUSH
2026-09-26Texas A&M at LSU
PickTexas A&M +8.5
Edge2.1
Projected22.7–29.1
Final6–35
ResultLOSS
2026-09-26Missouri at Mississippi State
PickMissouri +6.5
Edge1.9
Projected24.8–29.4
Final24–31
ResultLOSS
2026-09-25Army at Temple
PickArmy -3
Edge0.9
Projected30.5–26.6
Final21–17
ResultWIN
2026-09-25Navy at UAB
PickUAB +7
Edge3.3
Projected29.9–26.2
Final20–24
ResultWIN
2026-09-24Liberty at Coastal Carolina
PickLiberty -2.5
Edge6.3
Projected31.9–23.2
Final34–17
ResultWIN

Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. At these sample sizes every line here is still noise — the record is kept to be counted honestly, not to be impressive early.