Buffalo 2-3
12.7
Toledo 4-1
37.901 / THE NUMBER
The model makes this Toledo -25.2. The market has it Toledo -19.5, a gap of 5.7 points toward Toledo.
Tested against closing lines on 1,148 games, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.
02 / PROJECTED SCORE
03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM
Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 22.6 toward Toledo, before calibration.
04 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs all FBS
| Percentile, 0–100 | Buffalo off | Toledo off | Buffalo def | Toledo def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 3 | 67 | 20 | 87 |
| Rushing | 2 | 52 | 12 | 69 |
| Pass cons. | 2 | 58 | 32 | 77 |
| Rush cons. | 2 | 55 | 18 | 87 |
| Pass rate | 52 | 57 | 64 | 21 |
| Pace | 85 | 11 | 15 | 74 |
Higher is better on both sides — defence is flipped so the shape reads the same way. Percentiles are taken from the opponent-adjusted ratings, so a number earned against a hard schedule ranks above the same number earned against a soft one.
05 / TEAM RATINGS
| Per play, vs average | Buffalo off | Toledo off | Buffalo def | Toledo def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA / dropback | -0.170 | +0.204 | +0.001 | -0.164 |
| Rush EPA / carry | -0.086 | +0.089 | +0.005 | -0.140 |
| Pass success rate | -0.067 | +0.065 | -0.013 | -0.051 |
| Rush success rate | -0.050 | +0.055 | -0.012 | -0.112 |
| Pass rate | -0.012 | -0.003 | +0.002 | +0.032 |
| Plays per game | -0.5 | -2.6 | -1.9 | -5.2 |
Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season — after 5 and 5 games, a rating is still part last year. On defence, negative is good.
06 / ELO
| Rating | Buffalo | Toledo | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo, years of results | 1294 | 1598 | +304 |
Worth 9.0 points of this projection. Elo carries what three games of play-by-play can't: years of results, so a team that has been bad for a decade isn't rated average in September.
07 / SEASON SO FAR
Buffalo 2-3
| vs UAlbany | 21–17 |
| at Florida International | 20–33 |
| at Penn State | 13–55 |
| vs Robert Morris | 31–28 |
| vs Western Michigan | 17–20 |
Toledo 4-1
| at Michigan State | 20–30 |
| vs Central Connecticut | 63–10 |
| vs Temple | 49–48 |
| vs San Diego State | 41–16 |
| at Ball State | 39–24 |