Eastern Michigan 3-3
31.9
Akron 1-4
24.001 / THE NUMBER
The model makes this Eastern Michigan -7.9. The market has it Eastern Michigan -6.5, a gap of 1.4 points toward Eastern Michigan.
Tested against closing lines on 1,148 games, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.
02 / PROJECTED SCORE
03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM
Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 7.8 toward Eastern Michigan, before calibration.
04 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs all FBS
| Percentile, 0–100 | Eastern Michi. off | Akron off | Eastern Michi. def | Akron def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 15 | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| Rushing | 36 | 34 | 8 | 9 |
| Pass cons. | 15 | 17 | 7 | 27 |
| Rush cons. | 40 | 26 | 20 | 2 |
| Pass rate | 94 | 85 | 37 | 7 |
| Pace | 70 | 12 | 10 | 75 |
Higher is better on both sides — defence is flipped so the shape reads the same way. Percentiles are taken from the opponent-adjusted ratings, so a number earned against a hard schedule ranks above the same number earned against a soft one.
05 / TEAM RATINGS
| Per play, vs average | Eastern Michi. off | Akron off | Eastern Michi. def | Akron def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA / dropback | -0.041 | -0.072 | +0.055 | +0.042 |
| Rush EPA / carry | +0.052 | +0.041 | +0.017 | +0.012 |
| Pass success rate | -0.012 | -0.008 | +0.014 | -0.009 |
| Rush success rate | +0.039 | +0.019 | -0.013 | +0.029 |
| Pass rate | +0.084 | +0.045 | +0.019 | +0.056 |
| Plays per game | -0.9 | -2.6 | -1.4 | -5.3 |
Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season — after 6 and 5 games, a rating is still part last year. On defence, negative is good.
06 / ELO
| Rating | Eastern Michi. | Akron | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo, years of results | 1252 | 862 | -390 |
Worth 11.6 points of this projection. Elo carries what three games of play-by-play can't: years of results, so a team that has been bad for a decade isn't rated average in September.
07 / SEASON SO FAR
Eastern Michigan 3-3
| vs Sacramento State | 28–17 |
| vs San José State | 21–27 |
| at Michigan State | 7–35 |
| at Wisconsin | 10–54 |
| vs Lindenwood | 29–3 |
| at Massachusetts | 38–14 |
Akron 1-4
| at Wake Forest | 16–38 |
| vs Robert Morris | 45–10 |
| at Minnesota | 7–41 |
| vs UNLV | 10–38 |
| at Central Michigan | 17–41 |