Air Force 3-1
31.1
Northern Illinois 0-4
25.501 / THE NUMBER
The model makes this Air Force -5.6. The market has it Air Force -10, a gap of 4.4 points toward Northern Illinois.
Tested against closing lines on 1,148 games, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.
02 / PROJECTED SCORE
03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM
Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 5.7 toward Air Force, before calibration.
04 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs all FBS
| Percentile, 0–100 | Air Force off | Northern Illi. off | Air Force def | Northern Illi. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 48 | 5 | 2 | 36 |
| Rushing | 51 | 20 | 5 | 7 |
| Pass cons. | 26 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| Rush cons. | 48 | 18 | 34 | 18 |
| Pass rate | 1 | 64 | 28 | 89 |
| Pace | 91 | 22 | 79 | 26 |
Higher is better on both sides — defence is flipped so the shape reads the same way. Percentiles are taken from the opponent-adjusted ratings, so a number earned against a hard schedule ranks above the same number earned against a soft one.
05 / TEAM RATINGS
| Per play, vs average | Air Force off | Northern Illi. off | Air Force def | Northern Illi. def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA / dropback | +0.131 | -0.134 | +0.070 | -0.033 |
| Rush EPA / carry | +0.088 | +0.013 | +0.029 | +0.019 |
| Pass success rate | +0.007 | -0.034 | +0.030 | +0.008 |
| Rush success rate | +0.049 | +0.005 | -0.029 | -0.012 |
| Pass rate | -0.314 | +0.006 | +0.027 | -0.019 |
| Plays per game | -0.3 | -2.1 | -5.4 | -2.8 |
Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season — after 4 and 4 games, a rating is still part last year. On defence, negative is good.
06 / ELO
| Rating | Air Force | Northern Illi. | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo, years of results | 1437 | 1194 | -243 |
Worth 7.2 points of this projection. Elo carries what three games of play-by-play can't: years of results, so a team that has been bad for a decade isn't rated average in September.
07 / SEASON SO FAR
Air Force 3-1
| vs Duquesne | 34–0 |
| vs North Dakota State | 32–38 |
| at Nevada | 36–33 |
| vs Navy | 14–9 |
Northern Illinois 0-4
| at Iowa | 0–40 |
| vs Illinois State | 24–28 |
| at Arizona | 17–42 |
| at Georgia State | 14–35 |