San Diego State 2-3
21.1
Oregon State 3-2
28.501 / THE NUMBER
The model makes this Oregon State -7.4. The market has it Oregon State -15.5, a gap of 8.1 points toward San Diego State.
Tested against closing lines on 1,148 games, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.
02 / PROJECTED SCORE
03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM
Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 6.3 toward Oregon State, before calibration.
04 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs all FBS
| Percentile, 0–100 | San Diego Sta. off | Oregon State off | San Diego Sta. def | Oregon State def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 1 | 50 | 85 | 45 |
| Rushing | 33 | 15 | 80 | 54 |
| Pass cons. | 1 | 63 | 67 | 72 |
| Rush cons. | 28 | 47 | 64 | 76 |
| Pass rate | 5 | 99 | 67 | 57 |
| Pace | 7 | 53 | 18 | 74 |
Higher is better on both sides — defence is flipped so the shape reads the same way. Percentiles are taken from the opponent-adjusted ratings, so a number earned against a hard schedule ranks above the same number earned against a soft one.
05 / TEAM RATINGS
| Per play, vs average | San Diego Sta. off | Oregon State off | San Diego Sta. def | Oregon State def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA / dropback | -0.237 | +0.141 | -0.158 | -0.066 |
| Rush EPA / carry | +0.040 | -0.012 | -0.174 | -0.096 |
| Pass success rate | -0.071 | +0.070 | -0.041 | -0.047 |
| Rush success rate | +0.021 | +0.047 | -0.069 | -0.086 |
| Pass rate | -0.119 | +0.124 | +0.000 | +0.005 |
| Plays per game | -2.7 | -1.3 | -2.2 | -5.2 |
Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season — after 5 and 5 games, a rating is still part last year. On defence, negative is good.
06 / ELO
| Rating | San Diego Sta. | Oregon State | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo, years of results | 1417 | 1418 | +1 |
Worth 0.0 points of this projection. Elo carries what three games of play-by-play can't: years of results, so a team that has been bad for a decade isn't rated average in September.
07 / SEASON SO FAR
San Diego State 2-3
| vs Portland State | 53–20 |
| at UCLA | 10–28 |
| vs James Madison | 13–26 |
| at Toledo | 16–41 |
| vs Texas State | 31–29 |
Oregon State 3-2
| at Houston | 20–33 |
| vs Texas Tech | 24–35 |
| vs Montana | 52–17 |
| at UTEP | 33–7 |
| at Colorado State | 56–26 |