USC 5-1
25.8
Penn State 3-2
30.301 / THE NUMBER
The model makes this Penn State -4.5. The market has it USC -1.5, a gap of 6.0 points toward Penn State.
Tested against closing lines on 1,148 games, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.
02 / PROJECTED SCORE
03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM
Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 3.6 toward Penn State, before calibration.
04 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs all FBS
| Percentile, 0–100 | USC off | Penn State off | USC def | Penn State def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | 99 | 65 | 56 | 96 |
| Rushing | 47 | 20 | 52 | 59 |
| Pass cons. | 97 | 47 | 63 | 94 |
| Rush cons. | 46 | 43 | 36 | 53 |
| Pass rate | 50 | 39 | 66 | 30 |
| Pace | 93 | 42 | 65 | 88 |
Higher is better on both sides — defence is flipped so the shape reads the same way. Percentiles are taken from the opponent-adjusted ratings, so a number earned against a hard schedule ranks above the same number earned against a soft one.
05 / TEAM RATINGS
| Per play, vs average | USC off | Penn State off | USC def | Penn State def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA / dropback | +0.516 | +0.196 | -0.094 | -0.223 |
| Rush EPA / carry | +0.084 | +0.010 | -0.085 | -0.109 |
| Pass success rate | +0.186 | +0.052 | -0.039 | -0.079 |
| Rush success rate | +0.047 | +0.043 | -0.032 | -0.057 |
| Pass rate | -0.014 | -0.025 | +0.000 | +0.025 |
| Plays per game | -0.1 | -1.5 | -4.6 | -6.3 |
Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season — after 6 and 5 games, a rating is still part last year. On defence, negative is good.
06 / ELO
| Rating | USC | Penn State | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo, years of results | 1785 | 1821 | +36 |
Worth 1.1 points of this projection. Elo carries what three games of play-by-play can't: years of results, so a team that has been bad for a decade isn't rated average in September.
07 / SEASON SO FAR
USC 5-1
| vs San José State | 42–26 |
| vs Fresno State | 39–0 |
| vs Louisiana | 49–30 |
| at Rutgers | 42–35 |
| vs Oregon | 27–41 |
| vs Washington | 25–21 |
Penn State 3-2
| vs Marshall | 45–0 |
| at Temple | 27–9 |
| vs Buffalo | 55–13 |
| vs Wisconsin | 20–24 |
| at Northwestern | 13–34 |