UCLA at Oregon — breakdown

01 / THE NUMBER

The model makes this Oregon -14.6. The market has it Oregon -12, a gap of 2.6 points toward Oregon.

Tested against closing lines on 1,148 games, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.

SPREAD

Vegas lineOregon -12

ModelOregon -14.6

Difference2.6

02 / PROJECTED SCORE

03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM

Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 12.8 toward Oregon, before calibration.

04 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs all FBS

Offence

Defence

UCLA Oregon

Percentile, 0–100	UCLA off	Oregon off	UCLA def	Oregon def
Passing	34	93	72	96
Rushing	99	82	46	72
Pass cons.	38	88	72	100
Rush cons.	93	81	39	82
Pass rate	28	90	94	20
Pace	77	24	24	99

Higher is better on both sides — defence is flipped so the shape reads the same way. Percentiles are taken from the opponent-adjusted ratings, so a number earned against a hard schedule ranks above the same number earned against a soft one.

05 / TEAM RATINGS

Per play, vs average	UCLA off	Oregon off	UCLA def	Oregon def
Pass EPA / dropback	+0.066	+0.388	-0.123	-0.225
Rush EPA / carry	+0.266	+0.171	-0.069	-0.143
Pass success rate	+0.031	+0.119	-0.047	-0.095
Rush success rate	+0.139	+0.095	-0.034	-0.096
Pass rate	-0.039	+0.063	-0.027	+0.034
Plays per game	-0.8	-2.1	-2.7	-8.3

Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season — after 4 and 4 games, a rating is still part last year. On defence, negative is good.

06 / ELO

Rating	UCLA	Oregon	Gap
Elo, years of results	1660	1844	+184

Worth 5.5 points of this projection. Elo carries what three games of play-by-play can't: years of results, so a team that has been bad for a decade isn't rated average in September.

07 / SEASON SO FAR

UCLA 4-0

at California	45–24
vs San Diego State	28–10
vs Purdue	52–38
at Maryland	54–3

Oregon 3-1

vs Boise State	34–27
at Oklahoma State	31–39
vs Portland State	84–0
at USC	41–27