Texas at Oklahoma — breakdown

01 / THE NUMBER

The model makes this Texas -6.8. The market has it Texas -9, a gap of 2.2 points toward Oklahoma.

Tested against closing lines on 1,148 games, this model tracks the market rather than beating it. A large gap is a question worth asking, not a signal to follow.

SPREAD

Vegas lineTexas -9

ModelTexas -6.8

Difference2.2

02 / PROJECTED SCORE

03 / WHERE THE MARGIN COMES FROM

Each bar is that input's contribution to the projected margin, in points, pointing toward the team it favours. They sum to 6.8 toward Texas, before calibration.

04 / HOW THEY RATE · percentile vs all FBS

Offence

Defence

Texas Oklahoma

Percentile, 0–100	Texas off	Oklahoma off	Texas def	Oklahoma def
Passing	72	59	89	93
Rushing	65	31	95	94
Pass cons.	72	77	91	95
Rush cons.	77	39	94	99
Pass rate	23	69	6	42
Pace	88	72	23	54

Higher is better on both sides — defence is flipped so the shape reads the same way. Percentiles are taken from the opponent-adjusted ratings, so a number earned against a hard schedule ranks above the same number earned against a soft one.

05 / TEAM RATINGS

Per play, vs average	Texas off	Oklahoma off	Texas def	Oklahoma def
Pass EPA / dropback	+0.239	+0.168	-0.187	-0.202
Rush EPA / carry	+0.114	+0.038	-0.297	-0.276
Pass success rate	+0.085	+0.090	-0.074	-0.081
Rush success rate	+0.086	+0.038	-0.169	-0.199
Pass rate	-0.051	+0.013	+0.056	+0.014
Plays per game	-0.3	-0.9	-2.6	-4.2

Opponent adjusted and shrunk toward last season — after 4 and 4 games, a rating is still part last year. On defence, negative is good.

06 / ELO

Rating	Texas	Oklahoma	Gap
Elo, years of results	1930	1731	-199

Worth 5.9 points of this projection. Elo carries what three games of play-by-play can't: years of results, so a team that has been bad for a decade isn't rated average in September.

07 / SEASON SO FAR

Texas 4-0

vs Texas State	59–7
vs Ohio State	24–23
vs UTSA	30–6
at Tennessee	20–17

Oklahoma 2-2

vs UTEP	51–0
at Michigan	10–17
vs New Mexico	14–6
at Georgia	13–41